What a monster slate. We still have quite a lot of uncertainty in the air for a lot of players in new situations, so will generally be avoiding them today, even if they look like tempting plays (I’m looking at you Tobias Harris and Markief Morris).
A few positions today are absolutely stacked (PG and PF) and some of the other positions are a bit more a struggle, so will be aiming to pay up at the shallower positions today.
Steph Curry $11100 – He’s $900 cheaper than Russ, and the matchup is much nicer. While I really like Lowry here, Curry is just so safe as a premium play that he’s hard to fade. 40 FP floor and 70 FP ceiling is pretty nice to bank on.
Goran Dragic $6100 – A lot of people are going to be on Rose today, who is also a great pick, but I think Dragic might sneakily be the better play, especially if Wade is ruled out (currently questionable). Dragic was expected to pick up more usage in the second half of the season regardless, and now has 45% of the starting lineups usage sitting in street clothes with Bosh and Whiteside out. Rose is also a solid pick, but the back to back scares me and I feel like Dragic is safer in cash, though may lack Rose’s upside.
Emmanuel Mudiay $5600 – Might actually prefer him to the Rose/Dragic combo, as he seems a little safer. It’s really tough differentiating between the three, as all three have great upside but have one red flag. Mudiay’s flag is probably the safest (he’s a rookie and has been a tad inconsistent) so might be the best option of the three, especially given the matchup.
E’Twaun Moore $3500 – I imagine everyone will be off him today after his shocker yesterday, but that’s fine with us. He had three straight games over 22 FP previously, and has averaged 30m over his last 5. Still a great value play, and in a slate where there are a ton of premium plays we want to pay up for, he makes a great cheaper option.
Others to consider – Kyle Lowry $9100, Rajon Rondo $8900, Derrick Rose $6300, Norris Cole $5200, Archie Goodwin $5000
James Harden $11000 – Pretty much a must play for us. Given all of the value elsewhere, it’s hard to look past a premium play in a great matchup at a shallow position. 7 of his last 10 games have eclipsed 50 FP, and he has a dream matchup against the Suns.
Devin Booker $5500 – He’s just a great play week in week out. Averaging 37m/game over his last 5, he’s been pretty consistent with his numbers as well, with only one game below 4x in his last 12. Great matchup against the Rockets, and should see a bit of extra usage with Markief gone.
Evan Fournier $4700 – No one else seems to be on him, which is always a tad concerning, but he seems like a great play to me. He’s averaged 42m and 32 FP over his last three, and now Tobias Harris is gone as well, to free up more minutes and usage on the wing. The Mavs are an average matchup but nothing to be scared of, and I think Fournier has potential to be a great play.
Others to consider – Will Barton $5900, Tony Allen $4200
Danilo Gallinari $7400 – I really like Melo here as well, but find it difficult to justify the extra $1200, especially given Melo’s slight injury concerns. While Melo has been the better play for most of the season, their value is almost identical, and Gallo has the better matchup (slightly).
Nicolas Batum $7300– We were all over him when he was priced in the $6000s, but he still offers some pretty nice value even at his new inflated price. Averaging 5x over his last 5, and Milwaukee are one of the worst in the league at defending the SF position. Should see a slight bump in minutes as well with MKG out.
Justice Winslow $4100 – Should see the start with Bosh and Whiteside out, and could see close to 40m. It’s a pity he’s one of the least productive players in the league in a per minutes basis. Still offers nice value, and should return 5x at least, but has limited upside.
Others to consider – Paul George $8800, Carmelo Anthony $8600, PJ Tucker $5200, Matt Barnes $5200, Luol Deng $5000, Harrison Barnes $4300
Anthony Davis $9900 – PF is so stacked today, it’s really difficult to settle on a team. Davis though probably offers the best combination of upside and value, as he has a premier matchup and is still underpriced. Always carry’s an injury risk, but is a great value play today. If you can afford him, Cousins is a great play as well, but that extra $1000 is hard to come by.
Derrick Favors $6500 – Should have reduced ownership today after yesterday’s flop, but is a good bet to return value against a Boston team that offers a nice pace boost and have struggled against the PF position. Has returned 5x in 5/8 since returning to the starting lineup, and the matchup is favorable enough where we expect it to be done again.
Zach Randolph $6300 – Averaging 38 fantasy points over his last three, and should continue to see a ton of usage and minutes with Marc Gasol out. His price is a lock to go up from here, so he offers some incredible value while it’s still suppressed. Mediocre matchup against the Wolves, but the usage and minutes boost he gets are too significant to fade.
Others to consider – Demarcus Cousins $11000, Aaron Gordon $5400, Amare Stoudamire $3800
Gorgui Dieng $6400 – Averaging 33 FP as a starter this season, and has been absolutely rolling of late, with 35 FP in his last 5. While the matchup against the Grizz looks scary on paper, without Marc Gasol they are not the same team, and this is a game we shouldn’t be afraid to target.
Willie Cauley Stein $4100 – Great matchup against Denver, and with Casspi, Belinelli and Mclemore all doubtful, the Kings should play two traditional bigs more often. Great matchup against Denver, and there should be plenty of garbage points and rebounds available in what is expected to be a very fast paced game.
Bobby Portis $3500 – The ceiling isn’t incredible, but he’s averaged a solid 22.5 FP over his last 5. Almost a lock to return value if you need a cheap play.
Others to consider – Rudy Gobert $7300, Myles Turner $5500, Andrew Bogut $4900