Lots of money up for grabs with a $9300 + Target and $3,000 GPP today. Also, in case you were living under a rock lately, I’ve been putting up a 20 Man comp ($5 entry, top 2 get paid) for those of you who might be interested in single entry games. Maybe, just maybe, the powers that be will extend it to allow for more than 20…wink wink, nudge nudge. I think a large field single entry comp would be interesting…Anyways, full slate so on to the MLB fantasy tips…
If I post an article every 5th day, there’s a good chance it will feature Danny Duffy ($14,100) and today is no different. He’s been giving up some runs lately, but making up for it with 30 strikeouts in his last 24 innings. He just needs some run support and he’ll deliver 45pts. He doesn’t have huge upside, but I feel his floor is pretty safe at home.
Jimmy Nelson ($14,500) is the matchup play today pitching at San Francisco. Take away his complete debacle vs The Reds two starts back and Nelson has been pretty consistent this year. Like Duffy, even if he doesn’t get the win he should be good for a score in the 30s, which won’t kill you in H2H or single entry games.
Kyle Gibson ($7,900). Wait, what?? Yes, he has a 6.05 ERA but some of his other numbers suggest he hasn’t been quite that bad. His xFIP is 4.81, SIERA is 5.09, 52% ground ball rate, and he’s cutting back on his home run rate as the season progresses. Besides, all he needs to do is make it through 5 innings and he’ll get a win because the WhiteSox pitching staff is throwing batting practice these days.
Don’t overlook the chalky Chris Archer ($15,100) who has double digit K upside and probably the highest ceiling on the slate today.
Hitters & Stacks
The Twins have scored 28 runs in the last two days. OK, [cheating] they played a double-header yesterday, but still…they’re raking. Don’t let recency bias sway you away from stacking them up tomorrow and over the next 3 days as they face the WhiteSox, who apparently dgaf about this year. Today’s starter is former No.1 pitching prospect Lucas Giolito, who has fallen from grace in the prospect rankings. I can’t really see him lasting all that long and the Sox bullpen is both bad and over-used. I’m not really joking when I say 15 runs is possible.
If the weather complies, the Reds & Cubs are set to score a lot of runs as well. Two terrible pitchers in one game with the wind blowing out and high humidity forecast. Boom! Use anyone you can from this game, but be sure to check weather reports prior to lock.
Those two games should be pretty chalky, but a team that might fly under the radar a bit is my Mariners. I’ve picked on their pitchers (because they’re bad) but today they face Luke Sims, a 23 year old rookie who has given up a lot of hits and a lot of runs in 4 starts this year. The M’s are loaded with left handed bats these days and are playing with intensity in the hopes of shocking everyone and obtaining a wild card spot. I can see them scoring close to 10 today.
Cameron Maybin ($5,000) is my top value play today. The Angel leadoff hitter has been in a bit of a slump lately, but Tyson Ross and his 1:1 strikeout to walk ratio should help. Maybin has 27 steals this season and should find his way on base. I say he’s a safe bet to at least double his value with double digit points.
Nolan Arenado ($7,800). I just got done chatting with a fellow Moneyballer about how ridiculous his numbers are versus lefites. As much as I like Duffy today, Arenado is a must play whenever the Rockies face a lefty.
Matt Olson ($3,900) is another good value play today as the A’s face off against Ubaldo Jiminez. Olson has displayed decent power for Oakland so far this season. He smashed out 23 dingers in AAA before his callup, so his power seems to be translating. Jiminez, meanwhile, is giving up nearly 2 homers every 9 innings.
Rain is in the forecast for Cleveland, Cincinnait, and Pittsburgh, so get an update in the morning.