Double-up contests have been extremely popular in the Daily Fantasy Sports industry for a long time now. Players are attracted to the low cost of entry combined with the high chance of winning a prize. There’s a lot of money to be won in this style of a contest, but it also requires some specific strategies and knowledge to be successful in the long run. Here is an intro to Basic NBA DFS Double Up Strategy:
A double-up contest requires you to beat just over half of the entrants to double your money. Therefore, very simply, you need to be able to construct a marginally better than average lineup for the day. In most cases, a score of 320+ is enough to bring home the cash in an NBA double-up contest on Moneyball. If you scored in that range in the Thursday Monster on Moneyball, you might not even be close to gaining a return. To win the in the Thursday Monster or one of the other Tournament Contests on Moneyball, you have to be scoring at least 360 or more. It’s already clear why these two different formats need to be approached differently to maximise your return.
In a double-up contest, you should be looking for ways to achieve a winning score without taking on too much risk. In most cases, you can achieve this by targeting players that should achieve close to 5 times value – if their salary is $7,000, you want them to score close to 35 Moneyball points ($7,000 (7) x 5 = 35). But at the same time, you need to avoid players that are extremely volatile, because just as they are prone to excellent games, they are just as likely to put up a dud score. If you are looking to score 360+ and win a Moneyball tournament, then go ahead and pick players that are extremely volatile, because you need to maximise your ceiling. However, in a double-up, your goal should be to maximise your floor.
It’s important to understand how NBA players score their points so that you can then identify which players are more suited to double-up contests or tournaments. For example, two players may have identical average fantasy points per game, but they could be completely different in the sense that one may be more volatile than the other.
Let’s imagine that Player A is averaging 35.8 Moneyball points per game and his three highest scoring games for the season are 70.5, 61.2, and 55.8, and his lowest scores are 10.2, 14.3, and 22.7.
As you can see, Player A has produced some fantastic games, but he has also been prone to a horrible game as well. It’s tough to recommend playing Player A in a double-up contest considering how volatile his scoring has been. A score under 20 will definitely ruin your chances of cashing in a double-up contest. However, as you can see, he is an excellent tournament play because of his upside.
Let’s imagine that Player B is averaging 39.6 Moneyball points per game. With top three scores of 58.4, 52.6 and 48.6, and lowest three scores of 22.6, 31.5 and 32.0, it’s clear that Player B is a much different player to Player A despite relatively similar average scores.
In this example, Player B hasn’t shown the same type of upside as Player A, but he has been very consistent. He doesn’t deviate a whole lot from his running average, which makes him an excellent play in double-up contests.
It’s important to remember that in a double-up we don’t need to win the contest, we just need to place in the top 45% of entries. I don’t recommend chasing after Player A’s upside because you will be taking on unnecessary risk. Whereas you can select Player B on Moneyball and know that he will consistently score close to his average and be unlikely to put up a dud score. Once again, you’re not looking for his best game of the season here; you’re just looking for him to provide close to 5x value without taking on too much risk.
Although this is just one example of how to identify a player that is better suited to double-up contests, you should now feel more comfortable when choosing your Daily Fantasy lineup on Moneyball.