Are you ready to walk The Green Mile?
It’s time for the Wells Fargo Championship at the Quail Hollow Club in North Carolina. The course is a revamped, 7,554-yard par 71.
It’s a hard set-up with four lengthy par threes and nine of the par fours exceed 450 yards.
There’s three par fives and they’re reachable for most in two strokes.
This is a classy field, including world No 2 Justin Thomas ($9,000), course horse Rory McIlroy ($9,400) and the ever-popular Rickie Fowler ($8,900).
Holes 16, 17 and 18 make up The Green Mile and it’s a challenging way to finish your round.
Last week: There was no PGA DFS for the teams event in New Orleans but prior to that I had a bumper week at the Valero Texas Open.
Eight of the nine players from the column made the cut; the only miss was the chalky Luke List. I also won the $2 Putt on the back of Trey Mullinax’s second place.
Just to be greedy I finished fifth in the $20 GPP too, again, thanks to Mullinax as I was the only person who owned him.
Let’s hope for more of the same this week.
This is a challenging course following the re-design.
It has dropped to a par 71 from a par 72 and the course played the toughest on Tour due to its lengthy set up for last year’s PGA Championship, won by Justin Thomas ($9,000).
If you’re researching course history, bear in mind that last year’s Wells Fargo Championship was played at Eagle Point as Quail Hollow was being revamped.
The president of Quail Hollow has said the course will not play as tough this week as it did for the PGA Championship.
I will be looking for players who can drive the ball well given the length of the track. Also, since 2005, 55% of approaches at this course have come from 175 yards or more, meaning we want players who can hit their long irons well.
The greens are Bermuda with some over-seeding and they should play slower than last year’s PGA Championship.
You could look for a studs and duds approach with some high-quality players at the top of the tree.
$8 and $9K Range
Justin Thomas ($9,000) – Thomas won the PGA Championship last year so can play this course well.
Throw the teams event out where he missed the cut last week and his form has been great this season.
Thomas is fifth on Tour for approaches from more than 200 yards. He’s also seventh for strokes gained: approach.
Jason Day ($8,200) – Given he is $1,200 cheaper than Rory McIlroy ($9,400), Day becomes appealing.
He will likely be popular as the Australians are always a big hit in Moneyball PGA DFS.
There’s a gamble involved given his irons haven’t been flash this season but because he hits it so long, his driver should put him in play.
Day is also leading the Tour in strokes gained: putting this season. These are tough greens and that touch could be valuable.
Phil Mickelson ($7,400) – Last time we saw Lefty he was plodding his way around Augusta on the way to a T36 at The Masters.
Prior to the Quail Hollow re-design, Mickelson had elite course history; seven top-10 finishes from 2007-2016. Outside of the first five holes, the course is fairly similar so the veteran’s familiarity of the venue should hold true.
The 47-year-old is fifth on Tour for strokes gained: approach and second for putting this season.
Bryson DeChambeau ($6,400) – Regular readers will know I am a sucker for The Mad Scientist and at this price, it’s hard to avoid him.
Aside from The Masters, he has finished second and third in his past two starts on the PGA Tour.
Combine that with being 14th in strokes gained: off the tee and 10th on Tour for birdie average, and I am in on DeChambeau.
Emiliano Grillo ($6,200) – The Argentine has been on a tear this season.
In individual competition he has made 12 cuts from as many starts.
He hits his long irons well and is 19th on Tour for greens in regulation percentage.
He looks a safe play at this price-point.
Adam Hadwin ($5,900) – My love for Adam Hadwin will not die when he is this cheap.
The Canadian has been lights out tee-to-green this season and hasn’t missed a cut all year. He’s 23rd for strokes gained: approach and seventh around the green.
As I’ve touched on recently, his putting is due to come around and if it’s this week then watch out.
Francesco Molinari ($5,900) – The Italian looms as a reliable cut-maker.
With the nine-man Moneyball PGA DFS rosters, getting nine players through to the weekend will put you ahead of the field.
Molinari was second at the PGA Championship last year and his accuracy always puts him in good stead.
He is a terrible putter but is sixth on Tour for strokes gained: off the tee. The 35-year-old has made his past five cuts.
Trey Mullinax ($5,400) – I am not climbing off Mullinax yet.
The PGA Tour sophomore had a taste of being in contention at Valero and looks like a winner-in-waiting.
He leads the Tour in driving distance and is a gun putter when the flat stick cooperates.
His approach game is not elite but this is a bargain price for a player in form.
Joaquin Niemann ($5,400) – The 19-year-old from Chile is a future superstar.
He caught fire on the weekend at the Valero to earn his spot in this field courtesy of a T6 finish.
He might be popular at this price but if you go top-heavy on the big dogs, you will need some players in this range to fill out your roster.
Piece of Chalk: I could be wrong but I am picking Justin Thomas ($9,000) will be chalky and I am happy to play him.
Scrub-A-Dub: Trey Mullinax ($5,400) will get some more love from me this week.