I always kind of think of Thanksgiving weekend as the weekend where s**t starts to get real in the NFL. The 3 game Thursday slate can often bring some wild results, but this last Turkey Day was rather tame…unless you’re a Cowboy fan, then you can be excused for going off the rails a bit. NFL DFS Tips:
This time of year is when you should be extra careful to check weather reports to see if any extreme conditions come into play. Week 12 looks pretty safe outside of some potential windy conditions on the East Coast, so at this stage, I’m not really concerned. Let’s see where the fantasy goodness is…
Russell Wilson ($8,700). I traded for him in seasonal fantasy at the beginning of the year because I thought he was in for an MVP season. And while he probably won’t get it, I’ll take his fantasy output gladly: multiple TD passes in 7 of his last 8 games (20 in that span); averaging 37.5 rushing yards per game; the Hawks have no run game to speak of; and he has an offensive line that, while still not great, recently added an All-Pro left tackle. Oh yeah, he plays the 1-9 49ers this week as well.
Matt Ryan ($7,700) is my favourite home play this week, partially due to his price which will give you an extra grand to spend elsewhere. He has thrown 2 TD passes in each of his last 4 games and while his yardage total might not be where we’re used to seeing it, I’m guessing he’s getting more in sync with new OC Steve Sarkisian. He gets home game vs a terrible Tampa pass defense and I’m looking at 25pts from Matty Ice.
Cam Newton ($8,100). I kind of worry about this game being on the road, but the Panthers find themselves at 7-3 and will want to win this one ahead of two tough matchups in weeks 13 & 14. Cam’s averaging over 60 rushing yards in his past 5 games and gets his comfort blanket back in Greg Olson this week. A win and we’ll see him dressed in his Gotham Villain going-to-a-cocktail-party best.
Todd Gurley ($8,600) ticks the boxes I like here: workhorse running back for a home favourite; going up against a team that gives up an average of 115yds per game; is involved in the passing attack in a game with the highest implied total on the slate. There are a lot of great looking high priced RB plays this week, but I think Gurley will return the best value.
Tevin Coleman ($6,300) is another home favourite RB that should get a decent amount of volume. Not only that, he’s a great price and easily the top value at the position this week. The Bucs aren’t terrible vs the run, but Coleman will be the guy to get goal line carries as well as late game clock-burning action should the Falcons get out to a nice lead.
Antonio Brown ($9,700). Forget about how much he costs and get him in there. A prime time home game vs one of the absolute worst teams to defend fantasy pass catchers. Not really a whole lot to say here other than he’s the guy I’m paying up for in cash games no matter what.
Mohammed Sanu ($5,900) will be the guy to help you jam in Brown. It looks like Vernon Hargreaves might miss another game, so Sanu could have a field day in the slot.
Julio Jones ($7,900) is another solid option here, but I like the savings you get with Sanu.
Jarvis Landry ($7,200) sees too many targets to be this cheap. The Patriots allow the most yards per game vs the pass and should put the pressure on Miami to keep the score up. A shootout means 10+ targets again for Landry.
Jack Doyle ($5,800). I’m willing to overlook his numbers from last week vs the Steelers because he’s had 38 receptions in the 5 games prior to that. A home game vs a beatable Tennessee pass D should get him back on track.
Pittsburgh ($4,800) put a decent amount pf pressure on opposing QBs and the game script should see rookie QB Brett Hundley forced to throw a lot. The more opportunities for the Steeler defense, the better.
Good luck everyone!